Social | Potential | Founders' Review Editorial

Whether you're pursuing an education or working in a professional setting, there's a question that's likely to cross your mind: Will I advance in my career?

Our strategy is grounded in the rigorous scientific method of gathering comprehensive information before reaching a conclusion.

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Let's envision a scenario where you're the founder of a startup. Your ambition is to ascend to the role of CEO of a unicorn, a company with a market capitalization of over a billion dollars.

To attain this status, it's crucial to have a consistent income stream that appeals to investors. If you're not generating income yet, you should at least have revenue and be trading at roughly double that amount.

In our hypothetical industry, a unicorn would need to generate an annual recurring revenue of half a billion dollars for investors to value it accordingly. If your company isn't generating positive cash flow yet, this revenue is likely being entirely allocated to employee salaries or vendor payments. Let's assume you're paying salaries at a rate comparable to the GDP of our hypothetical state, which is ~$100,000. This would equate to the annual salaries of five thousand employees.

To retain your position as the CEO of a billion-dollar unicorn, you need to outperform these five thousand employees.

Consider this scenario as akin to a European-style football tournament. You compete against a random team at each stage until the final. This is similar to the pyramid of a Gaussian distribution or a game of Pachinko. Five thousand is less than 8*1024 = 2^13. To remain at the helm of such a company, you need to make superior decisions in thirteen instances compared to your competitors.

These decisions typically reflect your skills, which are accumulated over a lifetime. Skills can range from a Bachelor's degree in Science, a Master's degree in Marketing, experience in implementing layoffs, global product shipping experience, expertise in robotics, experience in handling diplomatic sabotage, experience in navigating downturns, dealing with illnesses, selling overseas, building from the ground up, maintaining positive investor and press relations, attractiveness, humor, and so on. To advance in your career, you need to perform better than the median in each of these areas.

At this point, you might be thinking, "I'll just acquire these skills and become a CEO." However, it's not that straightforward. If you consider the population of North Atlantic societies, it allows for five hundred thousand unicorns. Including China and India, that number could potentially reach a million. Each industry and each specific company will require different traits, some of which you won't know in advance.

Many companies grow beyond this level. What do you need to succeed? I can answer this by reflecting on analyzing experience and press on management at technology companies. Sometimes politics come into play, and technical and social cultures often promote their own people out of pride. There are flaws in the system. Sometimes you can compensate for these flaws with more skills, but sometimes you can't. Past decisions, group affiliations, and associations with failed projects can all be flaws that result in promotions being given to others.

You might find more success at a different company, or you could start your own. Remember, flaws are rare. Skills are your potential, and you can realize them most of the time. Moreover, teams with excess skills usually thrive and grow. Successful companies are those that can mend fractures. If a company is riddled with too much politics and sabotage, it will lose customers or overspend, leading to failure.

Will another company require the same skills? Certainly not. As time passes, different geographies, age groups, and customer trends will lead to different individuals becoming CEOs or managers. Loyalty will undoubtedly be beneficial at the lower rungs of the ladder. Presentation skills and empathy will be advantageous in organizations that sell a brand. Deep industry knowledge will be valuable in product-oriented organizations. The media and press will be captivated by your story, regardless of your skills. Investors will favor decisions that stabilize cash flows.

However, this thought process is tried and true. Simply perform the statistical analysis, and you can determine where you stand and whether you're deserving of a promotion.